Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 33.644207 39.878050 46.704517 54.703532 63.786792 73.747605 85.462749
2025-01-26 25.059802 33.498650 43.630045 56.549111 72.432508 91.164394 114.753951
2025-02-02 21.038171 30.787279 43.313190 60.278415 82.313461 109.600226 145.534338
2025-02-09 17.627508 27.937829 41.986574 62.007891 89.215821 124.261703 172.077274
2025-02-16 14.911071 25.431722 40.550882 63.091104 94.948494 137.384196 197.029329
2025-02-23 12.487440 22.869796 38.569432 62.984261 98.759554 147.884578 218.790322
2025-03-02 10.285098 20.233219 36.053892 61.685869 100.560493 155.488520 236.750449
2025-03-09 8.725091 18.360347 34.417388 61.421390 103.660519 164.869623 257.399407
2025-03-16 6.877170 15.632395 31.013638 57.971739 101.580518 166.514449 266.954505
2025-03-23 6.177507 14.895964 30.834737 59.638295 107.390625 179.902602 293.921308
2025-03-30 5.200382 13.429076 29.174093 58.625917 108.804730 186.664063 311.305388
2025-04-06 4.883604 13.266284 29.848611 61.645768 116.882444 203.902849 344.966754
2025-04-13 3.759590 11.202531 26.833621 58.150307 114.425648 205.439430 356.176253
2025-04-20 3.346095 10.688353 26.804715 60.136470 121.498911 222.596150 392.566818
2025-04-27 3.152272 10.667102 27.769546 64.059125 132.167769 246.036174 439.750964
2025-05-04 2.810067 10.177751 27.664741 65.876517 139.178530 263.766762 478.533703
2025-05-11 2.465775 9.590683 27.251529 67.014483 144.989582 279.718902 515.025962
2025-05-18 2.093844 8.815228 26.284759 66.902249 148.438450 291.784517 545.593860
2025-05-25 1.714217 7.890492 24.807136 65.538193 149.381683 299.527304 569.250665
2025-06-01 1.447255 7.240845 23.890191 65.260307 152.344132 310.849806 599.224626
2025-06-08 1.093374 6.135545 21.593344 61.634772 148.413813 309.716918 607.990541
2025-06-15 0.984851 5.922704 21.650055 63.386537 155.364693 328.387432 651.287388
2025-06-22 0.805125 5.338953 20.563889 62.322451 156.452261 336.383736 676.320900